A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
